Abstract
Climate change and associated changes in water temperature, hydrology and sea level, and severe storm frequency have significant implications for the function of marine habitats and survival of resident animals. Coastal areas globally are experiencing changes in viable habitat and food availability for many species, driving subsequent shifts in migration patterns, distributions and species ranges. These changes cause long-term ecosystem transformations, alter ecosystem services and accelerate extinctions. In the northern Gulf of Mexico (nGOM), including Alabama waters, an increasing number of tropical species, from primary producers to large vertebrates, have recently become established, leading to the hypothesis that these waters will continue to tropicalize, significantly impacting ecosystem functions. The tangible effects on local aquatic communities and implications for conservation, particularly for large vertebrates, are poorly studied.
The National Academy of Sciences recommends monitoring large marine vertebrates as among the most effective ways to detect early impacts of emerging stressors and associated changes in community dynamics. The goal of this proposal is to bring together a multidisciplinary team of researchers to investigate the anticipated effects of climate change on the distribution and habitat use patterns of the West Indian manatee (Trichechus manatus), a sentinel megafauna species that is of ecological and cultural importance to Alabama, thereby, supporting stewardship of Alabama’s coastal resources. This project will leverage existing datasets for Alabama waters to develop and test innovative approaches to predict and monitor biological responses of a large animal to environmental changes that contribute to the tropicalization of the nGOM.
Specifically, we propose to: 1) analyze existing long-term and high-resolution datasets from a combination of manatee sighting (1912-present) and tagging (2009-2019) data to build predictive models for distribution and habitat use by manatees in Alabama waters under current and future climate scenarios, 2) test and calibrate eDNA techniques as a novel alternative to direct monitoring for conservation of large and often hard to study animals, and 3) manage and share data with the public and targeted partners and end users.
This research will define: 1) the present-day patterns of distribution and habitat use of the West Indian manatee relative to habitat attributes (e.g., sea surface temperature, hydrology, salinity, vegetation cover), 2) changes in distribution, habitat use, and phenology of use patterns in Alabama under future climate scenarios, 3) how climate interacts with manatee abundance to influence distribution and habitat use in Alabama waters, 4) the likely ecosystem and management-level consequences of these changes, and 5) how eDNA techniques can be used to support or replace costly direct monitoring of manatees in Alabama and similarly turbid waters elsewhere.
We will use these data to support the following broader impacts for science and society: 1) reduce the uncertainty in developing future monitoring, conservation, restoration and management plans for protecting manatees, one of Alabama’s at-risk coastal species; 2) extrapolate application to other megafauna species (e.g., turtles, sharks, finfish) and regions that are likely to experience similar fluctuations in habitat attributes under climate change; 3) contribute to the emerging application of eDNA to conservation practices; and 4) protect the cultural heritage and burgeoning coastal ecotourism industry of Alabama.
Purpose
Provides data on presence and absence of manatees across the Northern Gulf of Mexico by geographic cell and associated environmental data.
DOI: 10.57778/45b8-r906
Suggested Citation
Carmichael, R. (2026). Sighting Data for Species Distribution Modeling [Dataset]. Dauphin Island Sea Lab. https://doi.org/10.57778/45B8-R906
Related Publication Citation
Attribution
This project was paid for [in part] with federal funding for the Alabama Center of Excellence from the Department of the Treasury under the Resources and Ecosystems Sustainability, Tourist Opportunities, and Revived Economies of the Gulf Coast States Act of 2012 (RESTORE Act) in cooperation with the State of Alabama Department of Conservation and Natural Resources under the Alabama Center of Excellence Program at the MESC/Dauphin Island Sea Lab.
